Image of developing pear fruitlet infected with fire blight
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Ontario Fire Blight Prediction Maps Now Available

Fire blight decision management tool now available for Ontario apple and pear growers

The fire blight prediction maps for apple and pear are now available for the 2023 season. Bloom is quickly approaching in early areas. Use these maps and predicted forecast for your area to prepare for potential infection periods.

Growers can access the maps on the ONfruit homepage or bookmark the direct link below. Links within the prediction maps page will help users jump to the section they are looking for as both apple and pear maps are together.

Bookmark in your browser for quick reference.

Using Prediction Maps

These maps are based on the Cougar Blight model to help support apple and pear growers with their fire blight management decisions. New for the 2023 season, OMAFRA has partnered with Weather Source to provide OnPoint Weather. The locations on the map are based on agricultural production and use all nearby weather data and geography to provide accurate forecasting data.

The maps are animated and will cycle through the daily fire blight risk predictions based on the 7-day weather forecast. Updated maps will be generated and posted three times per week (Monday, Wednesday and Friday) until bloom period is over. Follow the animated risk of the region that best corresponds with your orchard location. If predicted risk differs between overlapping locations, err on the side of caution and use the higher risk prediction.

The risk assumes that open blossoms are present and dew or rain will wet the blossom which is necessary for a fire blight infection to occur. If there are no open blossoms or if wetting of the open blossoms does not occurs, infection will most likely not take place. However, it only takes a little dew to wash the fire blight bacteria into the open blossom.

As with any model, the fire blight risk maps are a general guide. Environmental conditions may be more conducive for fire blight infection in a particular orchard than what is indicated by the maps. All apple and pear growers are encouraged to run either the Cougar Blight or Maryblyt model with data generated from their orchards for a more accurate prediction.

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